Dave Murray’s Long-Range Summer 2013 Forecast

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(KTVI)-We have certainly jumped out of the drought pattern of last summer and fall. It took until the end of the winter and early spring but it is another example that weather and climate is always changing, many times rather quickly. Getting locked into patterns is not what St. Louis weather is all about.

June 2013

June can be a strange month for weather. Spring is trying to hang on but the trend is for summertime. I think the wet start to the spring season will tend to slow that process down.  The key to my June forecast is what has happened up to this point in the spring season. The added snow and rain and the classic temperature swings will lay the ground work for the early summer weather. So this June  summer will start to take control but it looks like a slow process, slow for June anyway. The return of non-drought conditions will keep our temperatures a little below average for the month. Yes, I think we will see some hot weather in June but the main point will be more of the see-saw pattern of temperatures: some hot yes but also some cool weather for what typically is a summer month. The trend for the warmest weather will be early June then again late June.

On to moisture and we will start to see things dry out in June. It’s not a drought, the snows and rains of March and April will keep us in pretty good shape. Now June can be a very wet month, a month known for big, wet thunderstorms and a month where those storms take a swing at graduations and weddings. This June, I want to limit the rain and the storms. I’m thinking 2 to 3 storm events and they will be mean when they pop. But rainfall will turn out a little below average when we add up the entire month. Still pay attention to the short range forecast, especially when it comes to big plans, but we should have a fair share of dry time this June

Things to look for in the month of June

  • Watch for birds carrying food to their young
  • Check evergreens for bagworms
  • Cattail blooms are covered with pollen

June 2013 Summary:

  • The summer season will take over this month but unlike most Junes it will be a slow process
  • We continue to deal with a temperature see-saw. There will be some solid swings between cool weather and summer heat
  • There will be some impressive thunderstorms but we will stay away from the typical very wet month of June

July 2013

We move on to the heart of the summer season. July is typically 99.9% summertime. It brings the type of weather that we can talk about for years. We can't get around it.  Most years it is the hottest month. So the question becomes ‘What is the degree of hot?’ Does it come at us in cycles or does it just pound away at the region all month long? How the temperatures play out will also dictate the course of strong summer thunderstorms.

Last July, the heat was pounding. We saw dry heat and record heat. The patterns are similar this July, but with the wet winter and spring I don't think we see the long lasting desert heat. Now I do think this July will be hot but a little more like our typical hot summertime weather. That means more humidity, very much in contrast to last summer. There may be one cool spell of a few days but the overall pattern is hard core heat and that humidity. July rules in effect: find some shade, find a pool, and slow the pace down. Let’s think temps above average and there will be some 100 plus degree heat.

As for rainfall in July this is where I start to get concerned. Drought weather will try to make a strong come back as we head into the middle of the summer season due to the soil moisture drying and being used up, the higher sun angle, and few weather systems as the core storm track heads well north along the Canadian border. The dry conditions will be expanding from the west and southwest, coming in from the southern and central plains. Thunderstorms will be limited but one or two should produce some wild weather. Rainfall will be slightly below average. So the drought starts to dig back in and the water bills go up.

Things to look for in the month of July

  • Birds’ songs have now subsided. They are busy raising their young.
  • Long-tailed weasels breed through August
  • Watch for hummingbirds bringing their young to feeders.

July 2013 Summary:

  • The month looks hot but I don't see the long-lasting desert heat. Expect more humidity.
  • Some 100 plus degree heat is possible.
  • With the added humidity, there should be some potent thunderstorms but the action will be limited.

August 2013

August is the month to slow down and take it easy. If you don't, the summer season can quickly pass you by. Better hurry, vacation time is ending and high school sports kick into high gear. By mid to late month the school bells are ringing once again. Time flies and by mid August we are saying what happen to the three months of summer.

With a slowly developing el Niño pattern it looks like any heat that gets us in July will start to ease in the month of August, but it will be a slow process. The first half of the month will tend to run on the hot and humid side resulting in a tough start to high school sports. Then the second half of August should see a pretty solid pull back in temperatures. Now, it is still summertime so don't expect a blast of Fall weather, just a slow pull back in temperatures. The last two weeks of the month should feel a little better as the school season kicks into high gear. With the turnaround, I’m thinking temperatures will end up just a touch below average for the month of august

The first part of the month will stay dry and the return of the drought will go on. Expect dry times and more watering. But with the easing out of hard core summer in the middle of the month that will bring an increase in showers and some thunderstorms. August typically is a rather dry month and I don't see anything out of the ordinary when it comes to rainfall. Some summer thunderstorms around but I’m not expecting any tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The season will be late this year  so rainfall should end up pretty close to average for the month: dry but nothing extreme and that’s good news.

Things to look for in the month of August

  • Look for large flocks of purple martins gathering for Fall migration
  • Late summer molt produces drab colors in robins and other birds. They are not sick.
  • Wild cherries and wild grapes begin to ripen

August 2013 Summary

  • Hard core summer heat of July will start to ease in August but it’s a slow process.
  • Dry times to start then a little more in the way wet later
  • Late tropical season

Summer 2013 summary

Spring has been a real struggle this year in St. Louis but that will translate into a better start of summer. The wet ground will keep us from jumping into the frying pan right away. But hard core summer heat cuts into the region for the heart of summer, the month of July. I don't see the desert heat. Think more classic summer with heat and more humidity. Summer will start a slow pull back working through the month of August. Get out and enjoy no matter what the weather because summer will soon fade. Then Fall and Winter will be knocking at the door but that’s for another long range forecast.