Dave Murray’s Long-Range Summer 2014 Forecast

Summer WX Special 2014

(KTVI)-It was a tough Winter for the region and early spring was a struggle at best. Things started getting a little better in April and May, but now it is time to jump into Summer. Lots of folks are thinking that after one of the coldest winter in decades that summer will be a beast, but not so fast my friend. Plus we are always concerned about rain and storms and, many times, a lack of rain and storms, the drought. So let’s get going with a look at the month of June in St. Louis.

June 2014

June is typically a wild month of weather here in St. Louis. Most don’t expect it, but it is known for its swings. It is another one of those transition months, this time going from Spring into Summer. Spring tries to hang on but it will be summer that becomes king in the month of June. The key this June is what has been happening so far this Spring season. Spring has taken control but winter went away kicking and screaming. So goes this transition. Summer will take control but it will not be an easy process. In face I think it will be a slow process for the month of June. We have been doing pretty well with rainfall in April and May and that will keep any fast and long lasting heat waves in check this June in St. Louis. And that is good news for the graduations, weddings, and all the other fun events to kick off the Summer season. Of course, there will be some hot weather, 90 plus, but the main point will be a see-saw weather pattern, battles between hot and cool for June. Looks like the warmest weather will come in at the end of the month. When it is all over, June temperatures will be pretty close to average.

Moving on to the moisture patterns, last year el Niño was beaten back. That will not be the case this summer. It will be growing. Add that to I’m expecting that see-saw temperature pattern. June is shaping up like a rock and roll month. In fact, June is typically one of the wettest months of the year and that title will not be given up this June. No drought this time around with several attacks of big, wet, and strong thunderstorms. We rarely see all rain rains in June. We see events that last about 4 to 6 hours and then move on. However those 4 to 6 hours can really mean business. I’m going with 4 to 5 thunderstorm events and each will have the potential to go strong to severe. As a result rainfall will be well above average for the month. There will be flash flooding concerns during each storm attack and we will also have to keep a close eye on the major rivers in June for possible flooding. There will be dry time, but this is a month those with outside plans need to pay attention to the weather and have inside plans ready to go.

Things to look for in the month of June

  • Watch for birds carrying food to their young
  • Check evergreens for bagworms
  • Cattail blooms are covered with pollen

June 2014 Summary

  • A slow summer take over…see-saw temperatures all month long
  • An active month with a number of strong thunderstorm events…watch the skies
  • Above average severe weather, above average rain, and flash and large scale flood concerns

July 2014

It is all about the heart of the summer season in the month of July. This is typically the hottest month of the year, even if the summer is on the cool side. July typically comes in with pure summer temperatures. The questions is whether we see hot or miss surges of heat or if the hot weather will pound away at the region all month long. How hot July gets will also set the stage for how much thunderstorm action we can expect.

This will be an interesting month and a rather tough forecast. There are signs of intense heat over the southern plains. That is a little too close for comfort. Though I’m not expecting a hot July here in St. Louis, a minor shift in that southern plains could be a problem. I just want to get that out on the table. With that said, most of the time that hard core heat should stay away. I don’t see long lasting stretches of pounding heat. Will it be warm to hot? Of course. This is July in St. Louis. Temperatures will average pretty close to where we should be in the middle of summer, but I don’t see records and 100 plus degree heat will be a struggle. We could hit a day or two but nothing long lasting. Basically the July rules are in place: find some shade, find a pool, and slow the pace down. But this is not an extreme July at all.

As for rainfall, we will start to dry out. I have some minor concerns about drought but I think a few rounds of thunderstorms will keep us from getting into a pounding drought situation. The soil moisture will be drying up as it us used up by the vegetation. Higher sun angles will go to work and take the core storm track to the north. But that track will bend down over us from time to time and brings some mean and fast-moving thunderstorms. We could see some severe weather with the focus on heavy rains and localized flash flooding. It’s a see-saw rain pattern with dry times and watering times giving way to 3 or 4 thunderstorm events.

Things to look for in July

  • The birds songs have now subsided…the birds are busy raising their young
  • Long-tailed weasels breed through August
  • Watch for hummingbirds bringing their young to feeders

July 2014 Summary

  • Not expecting a super hot July…temperatures pretty close to average for the middle of summer
  • Yes there will be hot weather but I don’t see any records. 100 degree plus days will be limited
  • Concerns about drought but 3 to 4 thunderstorm events will help

August 2014

The month of August is the month we all like to slow down and take it easy at least for awhile. But it is also the month where all kinds of things start to ramp up. High school sports kick into gear, summer vacations end, and, before you know it, schools are open and students head back to college. You know we say it every August: “Wow…what happened to summer?”

This month has a strong potential to be the warmest month of the Summer. The key is the very hot weather locked over the southern plains. In August, I think there will be enough of a break-down in large scale patterns that this summer heat will make a few runs at us. I don’t see the high heat getting locked in, but it will be enough to get our attention. In contrast, the humidity will be low during these furnace blasts but that allows temperatures to jump. I don’t see records, but there may be a few days when we are close. August offers the best shot of 100 plus degree days. The blow-torch will be alive and well, but it does not control the entire month. There will be cooling shots from the north/northwest that will keep the heat waves from getting out of control. When the month is over, temperatures will be above average.

What about rain and thunderstorms? With the cool pushes every once in awhile we will be some fast hits of thunderstorms. No all day rains, but overall I’m thinking the month will be on the dry side resulting in an up-tick in the talk of drought. Rainfall and the number of thunderstorms will be little below average. My concern is that when we do have the hot and dry heat from the southwest, the soil and vegetation will dry out very quickly.

Things to look for in the month of August

  • Large flocks of purple martins gathering for Fall migration
  • Late summer molt produces drab colors in Robins and other birds…they are not sick
  • Wild cherries and wild grapes begin to ripen

August 2014 Summary

  • The warmest month of the summer season…hot dry heat pushing in from the southwest.
  • Month gives us the best shot at 100 plus degree heat
  • A few cooling shots will bring fast moving scattered thunderstorms…however the talk of drought will be on the rise

Summer 2014 Summary

So is there a correlation between a very cold Winter and a slow to start Spring with the Summer season? Maybe, especially for the first half of Summer. However, this is St. Louis and Summer never seems to let us down. Hard core heat will rise to the head of the class in the month of August. And with this pattern in temperatures showing up, drought concerns will be low to start the summer but very much in place to end the summer season.

The focus during the summer season will be the growing and building el Niño in the Pacific Ocean. The process will be coming on quickly, but I think the major el Niño impacts will wait until the upcoming Fall and Winter seasons, but that is for another long range forecast.

17 comments

  • rick

    Wow really nailed it this year! Going to be hot in August? Maybe some rain in June? Wow never would have guessed any of that! Nice Work!

  • Mascoutan

    If you go back and review Dave’s seasonal forecasts, he is usually about 80-90% accurate, +/- a few days or a few events. That is much better than a lot of other “allegationists” out there. So “pzzzt!” to you negative posters. I consider any “forecast” suspect beyond a day or two for specifics – even more at a week, but generalizations are allowed more latitude. Keep in mind that it’s all allegations until it actually happens and then it’s a weather report.

    • Mascoutan

      Jeeez rick – ypu’d be pissed at sunny & 75 degrees, yes? This is his summary for last Winter: Winter in St. Louis will be interesting. A slow start in the month of December then gearing up in January. By February, look for solid, hard core winter in the month of February. Look for temperature swings especially in December and January. Yes, there will be a January Thaw. As we go into February, the arctic opens and that door stays open. As for moisture, a variety in the month of December, trending more toward rain than snow. Then in the step-down in January it becomes more snow than rain. February brings much more snow than rain. A little bit of something for everyone and I will be on my forecasting toes all winter long. Plus, we have to remember that some of our biggest snowfalls happen in the month of March, but that’s for another long range forecast.

      I wouldn’t call that an “F” – for a shot at telling the weather from last Fall, I think he was pretty accurate. Better than the Weather “Allegation & Global Warming” Channel any day…

  • robert goldsmith

    I gave dave murrary spring forcast grade A,, he was spot on.. I notice no other forcasters sticking there necks out,, daves the best!!!

  • Mare

    The people commenting on this are unreal. If you think meteorology is such a joke, then WHY did you even take the time to open and read this article? Then take it even further to comment negatively on it? Are you adults? I sure hope not. It is unnerving that there really are so many rude people living amongst me. Did your mother never teach you the good ole “If you have nothing nice to say, don’t say anything at all.”? Grow up STL.

    • Todd Schischler

      “Grow up STL”?

      That’s an awfully broad brush you’re using there, cupcake. 11 comments when I replied. Shirley you had difficulties in Statistics class.

      (And no – I will not stop calling you Shirley. BwaHaHa!)

  • Enrique

    I’m really impressed with your writing skills and
    also with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you
    customize it yourself? Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare
    to see a nice blog like this one these days.

  • Joe Boyer

    Rick and Greg are ‘Global Warming Cultists’ Dave’s forecast doesnt fit their narrative. I have been following Dave’s weather advise for years now and give him an “A”for his short term and long term forecasts. Go watch the Weather Channel if you want to hear about melting Ice Caps that ain’t melting and warming that ain’t occuring and hasn’t for years. Must be really hard to try to defend their ‘Religion’ in light of real facts concerning IPCC fraud…Oh ! BTW.. Polar Bear populations are booming !

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