Winter Weather Advisory: St. Louis could see ‘dusting’ to 3″ of snow Thursday

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ST. LOUIS, MO (KTVI) -  A Winter Weather Advisory goes in effect tonight as accumulating snow is on the way. Allow plenty of travel time Thursday.

The morning weather data is in and there are really only some cosmetic changes to the going forecast of the past several days. Obviously it is cold and will remain quite cold today into tonight. Everything that falls with this weak Clipper system will fall in the form of snow, and a band of accumulating snow still looks likely.

IMPACT:

This is not a major storm when it comes to accumulation totals with a range of "dusting to 3" across the viewing area. However, the timing of the event, overnight into the Thursday morning rush mean the morning commute will be a challenge in many spots. This makes it a fairly high impact, albeit low snowfall total event.

LIMITING FACTORS AND CHALLENGES:

There are some limiting factors to accumulations.

  • This system does not have much moisture.
  • It is fairly weak.
  • It is moving quickly.
  • The heaviest snow with the fastest accumulations will be focused in a pretty narrow west to east band...maybe no more than 20-30 miles wide at most...with a sharp drop off north/south of that band. There are some indications a secondary band of 1-2" may develop down from near Farmington over to Marion IL but I don't have a lot of confidence in that scenario right now.

ACCUMULATIONS:

I still really like the idea of a band of 1-2" laid out along and about 15-20 miles either side of I-70 in Missouri through metro St. Louis to the area along or between I-70 and I-64 in IL. There could be some spots pushing 3" within that band, especially from St. Louis to the northwest, so I went ahead and opened up the entire band to 1-3" for ease of communication.. I think most will be more in the 1-2" range.  South of the heaviest band, totals will taper off quickly, with a dusting to 1" for areas south of St. Louis.

If you are right on the line between 1-3 and 1 or less that means pretty close to 1"..give or take 1/2" or so. This is not an exact science..I'm just trying to get you in the ballpark.

TIMING:

We should start to see snow in my far western counties of Montgomery/Gasconade between 9pm and midnight with light snow spreading east into St. louis metro between 11pm and 2am and most areas seeing snow during the AM rush. Snow will taper to flurries in most spots between 10am and noon if not a little earlier.

See the current weather radar here.

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