Political prediction market: Rubio soars, Trump collapses after Iowa

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WASHINGTON – Marco Rubio is once again leading the Republican field at a 48% chance of winning the Republican nomination, according to CNN’s Political Prediction Market, a game that invites users to test their political foresight.

Rubio’s sudden surge knocks Donald Trump, who recorded the highest chances ever for the Republican nomination at 50% last week, out of a solid first place. Trump collapsed from a peak 48% on caucus day to 30% after placing second in the Iowa caucuses. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the contest.

CNN’s Political Prediction Market, administered by a company called Pivit, is game that factors polls and other elements and invites users to predict where the election will go. The markets change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chance that a candidate or party wins or loses an election. It should not be confused as a survey from real voters.

Rubio’s surge in the market comes as he placed a solid third in the Republican Iowa caucuses last night, surprising pundits and relishing in what he considers a victory that helps him solidify himself as an establishment favorite. And while Trump beat Rubio in Iowa, placing second, his performance in Iowa was not as solid as recent polls suggested.

Cruz is now in third place in the prediction market, climbing seven points throughout the night with 22% odds of capturing the Republican nomination, while none of the other candidates rank above 1% chance.

By noon on the day of the Iowa caucuses Trump’s odds of winning the nomination were 48%, while Rubio, who has had a lackluster performance in the polls compared to the billionaire mogul, was in second place at 33%. Cruz, who was in a distant third place with 14% odds of winning the nomination on caucus day, has climbed seven points since his first place win at the Republican Iowa caucuses last night.

Rubio previously held the top spot when his chances for the nomination were at 49% in November, but had fallen to second place at 26% while Trump peaked at 50%.

The Florida senator’s lead in the market solidified as he makes the case that he would be the most electable candidate and the most likely to fare well in a general election against the Democratic nominee, either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

“I will be our nominee because of what you have done here in this great state,” Rubio said Monday night, pledging to “unify this party and the conservative movement.”

By Deena Zaru, CNN