Heavy rains could lead to flash flooding this week

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ST. LOUIS, MO (KTVI) - Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms are likely this week across the entire region with widespread rainfall totals by next Saturday (March 12) of at least 3” across the entire Fox 2 News viewing area, with some spots as high as 5” possible.

From a big picture standpoint, there are many similarities to the upcoming week of heavy rain with the record rain and flooding of late December. However, there is one major difference. Instead of the rain remaining focused in fairly narrow band along I-44 and up through St. Louis, this week’s events will be more transient in nature and tend to migrate south to north, then back south again over time.

Instead of one narrow zone getting all the rain it will be spread out over a larger region. While some areas may get rain in one round they may miss it during the next. Ultimately, that is good news as total rainfall in any one spot will not be as high as it would be otherwise.

Widespread 3” to 5” rainfall totals are expected and this will cause flash flood and river flood concerns Although not to the extent of the December event, at least as it stands right now. The map below is an update to my first outlook of 3"+ and simply represents the next level of refinement.


Monday: Much of Monday will be dry, breezy and warm. I expect daytime high temperatures to work up into the lower 70s.

Tuesday: It too doesn’t look half bad but with more clouds and at least a spot thundershower or two possible. Temps will warm back to near 70.

Tuesday night into Wednesday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms will become widespread late Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday. 1” to 3” of rain is likely during this period of time.

Wednesday night into early Thursday: There will be a lull in the rain during this timeframe…but for how long is still up in the air.

Thursday through Saturday: Several additional rounds of rain are likely these three days…however the intensity will have diminished somewhat. Still and additional 1” to 2” will be possible during this time.

This will bring storm totals in most of our viewing area up to between 3” and 5”

SEVERE THREAT: At this time, the severe threat appears pretty low with this system. It is mainly a heavy rain concern.

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