The winter weather system that will affect the region this weekend is rather weak, poorly organized, has limited moisture and is working with only marginally cold air. Late Friday night, this rather small storm system was spinning east out of Colorado into Kansas. As it spreads east it will get sheared apart even more… further weakening the storm.
Ahead of this system, look for increasing clouds Saturday… but the daylight hours look to be dry with temperatures warming into the 40s through 4pm.
After 4pm… light rain will spread east across the region with that rain mixing with light wet snow after 8pm with the snow becoming more prominent between 10pm and midnight as colder air works in through the clouds above. Down at ground level, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s… just cold enough for wet snow to survive to the ground and start to accumulate on grassy surfaces.
This will be a fairly quick hit of wet sloppy snow with the precipitation transitioning to flurries and drizzle by 4am Sunday morning.
I still don’t see much accumulation with this system… maybe a slushy dusting on grassy surfaces for most of our viewers. The one exception will be in a narrow band from near Fredericktown in Missouri northeast to near Flora in Illinois. Slightly heavier snowfall rates there may allow for a few grassy locations to accumulate up to 1-2 inches… but even here… roads look to be mainly just wet.
Beyond this storm system, all eyes are the system scheduled for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The usual questions still exist this far in advance… about timing, strength, track and temperature profiles. But safe to say, some “shovelable” snow is possible with that storm.