ST. LOUIS – With one week until primary day in Missouri, a new poll from FOX 2, The Hill, and Emerson College shows a huge change atop the Republican Senate race and tight numbers on the Democratic side of the ledger.

The biggest headline to come from our latest polling is that Attorney General Eric Schmitt now has a double-digit lead in the Republican primary. Approximately 33% of the 1,000 likely voters in the primary say they’ll vote for Schmitt on August 2, with 21% declaring support for Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler, and 16% voting for former Governor Eric Greitens. The margin of error is +/-3%.

This latest polling shows a dramatic drop for Greitens. Just last month, polling from the same group had Greitens in the lead with 26% of likely voters.

Political analyst Joe Cernik believes Republican voters are getting serious about choosing a candidate they’re confident can win in November.

“As people start to remember Greitens and the problems he had when he was married, why he lost the governorship, and some of his silly ads, I think have turned off people in a very big way,” Cernik said.

The polling shows 50% of voters have an “unfavorable” view of Greitens, while 17% percent view him as “very favorable.”

“I would say over the course of the last five or six weeks, there’s probably been some negative advertising towards Greitens, and that seems to have impacted voter attitudes,” Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling, said.

According to Open Secrets, the conservative Show Me Values PAC has spent more than $7 million against Greitens. Cernick says the key now is securing undecided voters.

“The undecideds are leaning towards Schmitt in the Republican primary. But undecideds make up their mind up at the last minute. Whoever blitzkriegs the TV commercials in the next few days,” he said.

On the Democratic side, Anheuser-Busch heiress Trudy Busch Valentine has a narrow lead over Marine veteran Lucas Kunce. According to the poll, 39% of likely Democrat voters will cast their ballot for Busch Valentine, while 35% of respondents plan to vote for Kunce. Busch Valentine has a significant edge over Kunce among Black Democrats. She has a 48% “very favorable” view among that voting bloc, whereas Kunce maintains a “very favorable” rating with just 16% of voters.

“This is why we saw the Lucas Kunce ad against Trudy Busch Valentine regarding the (Veiled Prophet) Ball, is because she’s winning the non-white vote, nearly 50 to 10,” Kimball said.

Racial favorability aside, Cernik thinks Busch Valentine’s experience in the medical field may endear her to Democratic voters.

“My feeling is if you’re saying one of the top two issues is healthcare, for Democrats, then seeing her as a nurse can help her,” he said.

Does the Trump factor still loom large in the Missouri Senate race? We again asked if the former president’s endorsement of a candidate would make those polled more or less likely to vote for that candidate.

In June, 49% said they’d more likely be willing to vote for that candidate. In our July poll, that number dropped to 41%. In June, just 10% said they’d be less likely to vote for the Trump-backed candidate. By July, 21% said they’d be less likely to vote for the candidate endorsed by the 45th president. Trump has yet to endorse a candidate in the Missouri senate race.