ST. LOUIS, Mo. – What will the weather look like this summer? Chief Meteorologist Glenn Zimmerman shares his long-range outlook.
As we work towards June, we have to look at several key benchmarks: What have been the pattern trends through spring, and the trends are pointing towards the next few months. At present, we have been in a La Niña pattern for the last several months.
It appears that the global pattern will continue. This pattern setup is similar to the last couple of years. But we will also look at the years 2017, 2011, and 2008.
June starts with a dry trend, one that will be present for the summer. With very little in the way of rain to cool us off, this June will also be warm. All of our guidepost years are within the top 20 of the warmest on record.
Now, there should be a buildup of heat and energy in the atmosphere for a couple of weeks. So let’s look for a round of storms, some strong, across the region. A potential severe weather event is possible in the middle of the month. After that, more dry weather.
Last year, our June was warmer than normal with a 101 degrees mid-month. This year we will stay with that warmer than a normal trend — more 90s than 80s
2021 had a dry start and then a couple of big rain events. This year looks pretty similar with a few storms mid-month that could push us above average.
July is normally all about summertime heat and humidity and we will get plenty of that. Average highs climb to near 90 degrees and stay that way all month long. Eight of the 10 hottest temperatures ever recorded in St. Louis are from the month of July.
I think this July will follow along with those warm and humid trends. From this vantage point, the models have a hard time seeing cool air. I feel like there is not much to see. Two of our analog years, 2011 and 2017, were within the hottest Julys on record. And this pattern has the potential to keep that going.
Rainfall will hinge on a cold front trigger or a tropical system trigger. I don’t see much of that on the way.
July 2021 wasn’t all that hot, actually near normal. This year the temps will be above normal with a 100+ temperatures. Rainfall last July was two inches above normal with four big rain events. This year it will be drier than last year.
By the time August rolls around, people are always asking for some cooler air. At that point in the summer, we look to the tropics to activate the jet stream. This year’s tropical season will be active with several storms in the Gulf. That will bode well for us regarding rainfall.
We may get a couple of higher chances of rain. But the trend will continue to be dry and warm. Highs stay near to above normal and overnight lows stay mostly above normal. With those warm nights, the humidity will not take a break.
Last year August started cool, then the heat came, 11 straight days of 90+ degrees including a 100-degree day late in the month. This year temps will stay above normal, especially thanks to warm overnight temps.
August 2021 was wetter than normal by an inch and a half. This year we will watch the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico for a couple of chances of rain, but mostly it’s dry.