ST. LOUIS – We’ve been in a La Niña pattern for the last three winters. That third La Niña winter has only happened a couple of times in our history. So, this year is a little strange.

We know that we are heading toward more of an El Niño pattern ahead, but that transition is going to be rough. Plus, the spring months are always a transition from winter to summer. That may bring an extra active spring with rain and storms.


March is always a spring tease. You want it to be spring, but March is always cooler than you think it should be. This year will be no exception. We haven’t had much snow this winter, but I don’t think we will be out of the woods with that in March. That, and a bit of a chill, and March may feel more like winter than spring. Look for another shot of cold air before the month is over.

Last March, we had some wild swings in temperatures, with some really warm days, and some really chilly days, but wound up above normal. This March may work out the same, but I think it will favor the cool side of things.

March 2022 was a wet one, with above normal rainfall and even a few snowflakes. This year, March will not only be cool, but wet. You cannot entirely rule out the chance of some snow, especially with the cooler than normal trends.


April will pick up where March left off – very active. Rain is going to be the issue with April 2023. We are set up to be in a zone where rain and storms could be prominent. This is a month when we need to be on the lookout for patterns that bring us severe weather. That mixing of winter and summer and a shifting jet stream could bring those dynamics together.

Last April we had a cooler than normal month with a frost threat staying late in the month. I think this April will be cool again with an active pattern.

April 2022 was a dry one overall, but we had several days with rain and even some snow on April 8. This time, the wet pattern will continue from March. Showers and storms will keep us watching the local river levels.

Let’s take a little timeout to focus on spring flooding. Our rivers have been running low all winter. But the key to the river outlooks is to look north. There is quite a snow pack in the northern Mississippi River Valley. That melt may bring a little bigger chance of flooding downstream, including the St. Louis area. The northern Missouri River Valley has been experiencing a drought. So any melt, or runoff will more than likely soak in, leaving any widespread flood possibilities in the mid-Missouri Valley pretty low.


May is pure spring in St Louis. Some Mays are warm to hot, and some are cool and wet. And sometimes, May can show us the pattern for the summer and beyond. Of course, we want to be outside in May. Baseball and soccer are going to be in full swing, and so are area running and cycling events. As with all Mays, we will have to take it day-by-day and week-by-week to see how the stormy pattern evolves. I think it’ll take all month to get warm.

Last May, we had five days when the highs were above 90° and the average monthly temperature was above normal. This may, it will be cooler and slow to get warm, or at least as warm as you think it should be.

May 2022 was also a wet month, with three big rain events and above normal rainfall for the month. This may will be similar, with higher rain chances all month.