The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season got off to a quick start and shows no signs of slowing. Josephine is the 10th named storm, forming at the earliest date ever for the 10th storm of a hurricane season, breaking the previous record of Jose that was set back on August 23,2005.
The season was quick to start, with Arthur and Bertha forming even before the season officially began. Cristobal was quick to follow forming within the first days of June.
Typically, there are only 2 named storms by early August. On average the 10th storm doesn’t typically form by the month of October. For an average season we see 12 named storms, 6 of them becoming hurricanes, and 3 of them reaching a major category.
So far, with 10 named storms by the middle of August (over 3 months before the season ends) there is a high probability this will be an above average season.
The updated outlook issued by NOAA predict the high probability of an extremely active season. Now predicting a range from 19-25 named storms, 7-11 becoming hurricanes, and 3-6 of those becoming major hurricanes.
It’s important to remember that these outlooks don’t predict landfall. That’s forecasted days to a week in advance of the system. Some of the named storms may not even reach land.
With warmer sea surface temperatures, reduced wind shear, as well as weaker trade winds, the atmosphere is ready and primed for the continuation of a busy season.
Josephine was located around 600 miles east southeast of Leeward Islands with sustained winds up to 40 mph. The storm looks to maintain tropical storm strength as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. As it heads closer to the U.S. the storm is predicted to make a northward turn, avoiding landfall on the east coast. Impacts to the U.S., as of now, looks unlikely.